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CHF: Swiss Franc is still weak
At the Forex currency market Swiss Franc rate continues to weaken on Friday.
Forex forecast: MACD indicator for the pair USD/CHF is in the positive area and is going down, giving a sell signal, volumes are average.Stochastic Oscillator is going up moderately in the neutral zone and is givinga buy signal.
Forex recommendations: in case of breakdownat the level of 0.9550, the pair USD/CHF will go to 0.9560 and 0.9580.
Yesterday, the head of Swiss National Bank,Mr. Hildebrand received a vote of confidence from Swiss government: earliermarket had discussed information about wife of the monetary politician, an ex-trader, who bought USD a few weeks before the Franc was pegged to the Euro.
The head of the SNB said more than once thathe is not going to leave his post as he has never break any laws and hasnothing to do with his wife's business.
GDP in Switzerland will amount to 1.5%-2.0% this year;main growth will be attributed to the results of the first part of the year.
According to the data released in the end ofDecember leading indicators index KOF fell to 0.01 points in December againstthe forecast of 0.23 points and previous revised value of 0.34 points. Itbecame known earlier that trade balance in Switzerland rose by 3.0 billionfrancs in November against the forecast of +2.00 billion francs and previousvalue of +2.15 billion francs. Index is favourable; however it is based on theefforts of the local regulator to curb the rate of the Franc.
Observers from Wells Fargo believe thateconomic indexes in Switzerland demonstrated slowdown all the year round; manyindexes give indication that weakness will continue for the next six months.According to them, domestic demand is also getting lower which is a negativesign. As for the rate, it is most likely that SNB will adhere to the zerolevel, due to soft inflation. Statistics released earlier showed that businessactivity index PMI SVME in Switzerland increased to 50.7 points in December against 44.8 points in November.
Three-month Libor rate was left in the range of 0-0.25%, closer to zero; the Bank did not change pegging level of Franc toEuro, maintaining the actual level of 1.20. In the follow up comments the headof SNB Mr. Hildebrand stressed that the regulator will continue to maintain thetarget rate of CHF, with the help of purchases of foreign currency in unlimitedquantities and additional package of measures if situation requires. SNB isready to maintain high level of liquidity, as inflation growth is not expected.In general, economy of the country depends a lot on the European crisis.Apparently, SNB has adopted attitude of an onlooker, keeping in place existingmanagement tools, being pretty confident that they always have time to startintervention. Swiss National Bank noted earlier that the regulator is preparedto take additional measures if situation at Forex deteriorates. According toSNB, strong Franc creates extra problems for the economy and the issue ofnegative interest rates and control over the capital movement is being thorough lyscrutinized in the Bank.
