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• Rouble is losing positions again in pairing with USD and EUR [11/10/2011]
• NZD: New Zealand Dollar is descending [11/10/2011]
• AUD: sales of Australian Dollar do not subside [11/10/2011]
• JPY: Japanese Yen remains in the narrow trade range [11/10/2011]

CHF: Swiss Franc stands still

At the Forex currency market Swiss Franc rate stands still at the beginning of the week after the surge of sales earlier.

Forex forecast: MACD indicator is in the negative area for the pair USD/CHF, however it is moving along the signal line and is not giving a clear signal. Stochastic Oscillator remains in the overbought zone on Monday, making it possible to form a reversal signal. 

Forex recommendations: off the market.

Feasible event scenario at Forex: in case of breakdown at the level of 0.9575 the pair will go to 0.9625 and 0.9685. I case of a breakdown at the level of 0.9525, traders’ targets will be the levels of 0.9500 and 0.9480.

The situation in Swiss economy has not changed much by this morning. Macro-economic background will be eventful for Switzerland- tomorrow, on Tuesday the data on the unemployment rate for January will be released (decline is expected), on Thursday, inflation data will be made public (forecast: -0.1% m/m).

Statistics of last week looked optimistic: levels of exports in the country increased by 10.9% y/y in December, the index rose mostly due to the demand for watches (export of watches in December: +25.5%, to 1.53 billion francs). At the same time trade surplus (supported by the data mentioned above) rose to 1.3 billion francs in December and levels of import increased by 10.5% y/y (14.2 billion francs).

However the data released before that shows that not everything is that good in the economy: leading indicator according to the Research Institute KOF fell to the level of 2.10 against the level of 2.11 in December, which became the fifth consecutive fact of reduction of the indicator. However, the data was still above than the forecast of economists (2.05). Retail sales in December declined by0.4% y/y against +1.8% for the previous period; PMI in the manufacturing sector in January was at the level of 60.5 against 61.2 for the previous period.

Note that SECO, the Department of Economic Policy in Switzerland believes that this year GDP growth will drop to 1.5% while in 2010 it amounted to 2.7%. The department will release a new forecast on 17 March.

 

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