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At the Forex currency market on Friday morning, Swiss Franc rate is getting weaker on Monday; although it still maintains its position near historic highs- during Asian session Franc was aiming at retest.

Forex forecast: MACD indicator is in the negative area for the pair USD/CHF, and is going down, giving a sell signal. Stochastic Oscillator is reversing in the oversold zone and shaping a weak buy signal.

Forex recommendations: off the market.

Feasible event scenario at Forex: in case of breakdown at the level of 0.8100, the pair USD/CHF will try to retest new lows of 0.8081. If the level of 0.8135 is broken down, the target the pair’s growth will become the level of 0.8150. On Thursday, 21 July the data on Swiss trade balance in June will be made public. 

Representative of Swiss government noted earlier that national economy is still in good shape despite strengthening of the national currency. As the same time, first signs of cooling in the export sector could be seen and if these symptoms continue to develop, it will have a negative impact on the economy as a whole.

Statistics released earlier showed that producer prices and prices for imports decreased by 0.2% (-0.4% y/y) in May against the forecast of growth by 0.1% m/m. In June the index decreased by 0.5% m/m (-0.4% y/y) against the forecast of reduction by 0.3% m/m.

According to authorities, Swiss National Bank is solely responsible for the course of monetary policy and in the coming future it is likely to adopt new, effective measures to achieve price stability soon.

Representative of Swiss National Bank Mr. Jordan said that Switzerland went through the crisis easier than other countries largely due to its monetary policy and if the country will return to deflation, the CNB knows how to fight it. Jordan is concerned, however about recent dynamics of the EUR/CHF, saying that risks will increase when Italy will join the list of the EU problematic countries.

At the meeting earlier, Swiss National Bank decided to leave three- month Libor rate in the previous range of 0-0,75% with a tendency  to 0.25%. At the same time, the SNB said that GDP growth would amount to 2% this year. Inflation in 2011 is predicted at around +0.9% (previously +0.8%), in 2012: +1.0% (previously 1.15), in 1013: +1.7% (previously +2.0%).

Rating agency Fitch confirmed the ranking of Switzerland at the level of AAA, and gave a “stable” forecast.

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