CHF: Swiss Franc still tends to grow

At the Forex currency market Swiss Franc rate is getting slightly weaker on Wednesday, however still tends to grow. 

Forex forecast: MACD indicator is in the negative area for the pair USD/CHF, however continues to go upward, giving a pair buy  signal. Stochastic Oscillator remains in the neutral zone, and goes down, giving a sell signal.

Forex recommendations: off the market.Feasible event scenario at Forex: in case of breakdown at the level of 0.8430, the pair USD/CHF will go to 0.8460 and 0.8480.

If upward breakdown does not take place, the pair will consolidate close to the current levels.Index of economic expectations ZEW in Switzerland will become known today. If the index demonstrates significant decline, it will be a negative signal for the Franc.  In other respects economic situation in Switzerland remains almost unchanged.GDP in Switzerland has slowed down growth rate in QI this year, increasing by 0.3% on quarterly basis (+2.4% y/y) against the rise of 0.8% last quarter and the forecast of growth of 0.6 %.

The data released earlier showed that CPI in Switzerland remained unchanged on monthly basis (+0.4% y/y) in May against the forecast of decline by 0.1% m/m (+0.3% y/y).Statistics released earlier showed that producer prices and prices for imports decreased by 0.2% (-0.4% y/y) in May against the forecast of growth by 0.1% m/m. It became known earlier that unemployment rate in Switzerland fell to 2.9% in May against the level of 3.1% in April and the forecast of 3.0%. It is worth noting that index of PMI SVME in Switzerland increased to 59.2 points against the forecast of 57.5 points. It proves once again that national economy has learnt to be effective even in circumstances where national currency is expensive.

At  the meeting of the Swiss National Bank last week, three- month Libor rate was left in the previous range of 0-0,75% with a tendency  to 0.25%. At the same time the SNB said that GDP growth would amount to 2% this year. Inflation in 2011 is predicted at around +0.9% (previously +0.8%), in 2012: +1.0% (previously 1.15), in 1013: +1.7% (previously +2.0%)Julius Baer Group believes that it is not clear yet whether Swiss economy requires the increase in the   interest rate or not: “any rise will have an impact on the economy as a whole for a year”. However it is quite possible that local economy and its recovery process are strong enough to cope with the interest rate rise to 1%-1.5%. 

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