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At the Forex currency market on Tuesday Swiss Franc rate is traded upward in the middle of the week

Forex forecast: MACD indicator for the pair USD/CHF is in the positive area and is growing, giving a buy signal. Stochastic Oscillator goes down in the neutral zone and is giving a sell signal, coming closely to oversold zone.

Forex recommendations: in case of break down at the level of 0.9275, the pair USD/CHF will go to 0.9260 and 0.9250. If downward breakdown does not take place, the pair will consolidate at the current levels.

It became known yesterday that trade balance in Switzerland rose by 3.0 billion francs in November against the forecast of +2.00 billion francs and previous value of +2.15 billion francs. Index is favourable, however it is based on the efforts of the local regulator to curb the rate of the Franc.

Apart from this, macro-economic background is stable: Swiss National Bank was the main newsmaker last week. The meeting of Swiss National Bank, which had been expected so eagerly by players, was neutral. Three-month Libor rate was left in the range of 0-0.25%, closer to zero; the Bank did not change pegging level of Franc to Euro, maintaining the actual level of 1.20. In the follow up comments the head of SNB Mr. Hildebrand stressed that the regulator will continue to maintain the target rate of CHF, with the help of purchases of foreign currency in unlimited quantities and additional package of measures if situation requires. SNB is ready to maintain high level of liquidity, as inflation growth is not expected. In general, economy of the country depends a lot on the European crisis.

Apparently, SNB has adopted attitude of an onlooker, keeping in place existing management tools, being pretty confident that they can start intervention any time.

Retail sales fell by 0.2% y/y in October against a decline of 1.4% y/y earlier. GDP rose by 0.2% q/q (+1.3% y/y) in Q3 against the forecast of growth of 0.1% q/q (1.7% y/y). ). The data on quarterly basis was positive, indicating that efforts of the Central Bank to curb the rates of the Franc are effective. Statistics of this week showed that unemployment rate in Switzerland remained at the level of 3.1% in November. In addition, CPI fell by 0.2% m/m in November, while expected growth had been of 0.1%. Inflation is clearly affected by external background.

As per estimates of Swiss National Bank, GDP in Switzerland will amount to 1.5%-2.0% this year; main growth will be attributed to the results of the first part of the year. SNB noted in the comments that if stringent monetary measures had not been taken the economy would have slipped to a recession. SNB expects that inflation will be at the level of 0.4% in 2011 and at the level of 0.3% next year. Earlier, SECO released economic forecast, according to which economic growth in Switzerland will amount to 0.5% in 2012 against the previous expectations of growth of 0.9%.

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