Forex Blog
Blog-FX.Com

At the Forex currency market Swiss Franc rate is traded upward on Tuesday amid stable external environment. The CHF re-tested historic highs again at the Asian trading session.

Forex forecast: MACD indicator is in the negative area for the pair USD/CHF and goes down, forming a pair sell signal; while volumes remain average. Stochastic Oscillator remains in the oversold zone, giving a pair sell signal

Forex recommendations: in case of breakdown at the level of 0.8500, the pair USD/CHF will go to 0.8480 and to new lows of 0.8465. If downward breakdown does not take place, the pair will consolidate close to the current levels.

Important Swiss data will be released this afternoon. It will be assessment of the country’s GDP in QI. If the indicator will be above the previous level of 0.9%, the Franc will receive support.

In general Swiss economic situation remains almost unchanged.

Index of leading indicators KOF in Switzerland rose to 2.30 points in May against the forecast of growth by 2.22 points.

Julius Baer Group believes that it is not clear yet whether Swiss economy requires the increase in the   interest rate or not: “any rise will have an impact on the economy as a whole for a year”. However it is quite possible that local economy and its recovery process are strong enough to cope with the interest rate rise to 1%-1.5%.

Note that real effective exchange rate of the Franc grew by 10% last year.

As it was made public earlier the level of trade balance in Switzerland rose by 1.52 billion in April against the rise of 1.0 billion in March. In addition, exports in Switzerland increased by 7.9% in April against the fall by 3.1% in March.

It became known earlier that index of investors’ economic expectations ZEW in May fell by 20.3 points in May, to the level of -11.5 points against the previous level of 8.8 points. Due to such background, a number of those who expected the increase of the interest rate in the next quarter have dropped sharply.

However, economists do not assess Swiss economic situation as negative, on the contrary, it is described as “good” (majority -68.6% of respondents think so). The share of those, who expect the rise in inflation in the near future, has fallen to 51.4% (-25.1%).

Swiss National Bank is going to discuss monetary policy issues on 16 June.

The data on the retail sales and PMI in Switzerland will be released on Wednesday.

Tags: