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At the Forex currency market the British Pound rate is in the focus of sellers’ attention again after slight rebound last Friday. Although current levels look attractive for purchases, investors do not intend to take risk.

Forex forecast: MACD indicator is in the negative area for the pair GBP/USD, tends to make upward reversal, and is going to shape a buy signal. Stochastic Oscillator is descending in the neutral zone, giving a sell signal.

Forex recommendations: off the market.Feasible event scenario at Forex: in case of breakdown at the level of 1.6020, target for the purchase will be the levels of 1.6035 and 1.6055.  If case of breakdown at 1.5990, target for the purchase will become the level of 1.5970.Economists of JP Morgan reported last Friday that they have revised the UK GDP downward: most likely economy of the country will be either flat in Q2, or will demonstrate slight rise by the end of Q2. By the way, as predicted by OECD, British economy will rise by 0.1% in Q2. 

According to the forecast made by NIESR, GDP in Great Britain will rise by 0.1% in June against the revised level of 0.5% in May. It is logical, because economic situation in the UK remains tense. According to Barclays estimates, British Pound is going to be pessimistic in pairing with the USD, which will be caused by low demand in the country and probability of a new stage of decline in confidence.

Position of the bank of England does not facilitate strengthening of the GBP either. Most likely loss of   confidence in the finance and monetary policy of Great Britain will be continued - and it is a negative factor for the GDP. Although exchange rate remains low, eliminating sharp collapse of the Pound.The meeting of the Bank of England was held last week: interest rate was kept unchanged at the level of 0.50% per annum.

Statements on the monetary policy have not been made. It is likely that the rate will remain at the current level until Q1 2012. The minutes of the meeting will be made public on 20 July.It is worth noting that percentage of expectations of the interest rate growth has declined significantly over the past few weeks.

As it became known earlier, retail price index BRC in Great Britain rose by 0.5% m/m (+2.9% y/y) in June against the level of +2.3% y/y in May. Price index for food rose by 5.7% y/y last month (+4.9% y/y in May). Increase in the index was the highest since October 2008, confirming the view that inflation is accelerating.According to the latest information CPI in May amounted to 4.5%.

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