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• AUD: sales of Australian Dollar do not subside [11/10/2011]
• JPY: Japanese Yen remains in the narrow trade range [11/10/2011]

GBP: British Pound determines movement direction at the beginning of the week

At the Forex currency market the british Pound Sterling rate is traded with no specific movement direction on Monday.

Forex forecast: MACD indicator is in the positive area for the pair GBP/USD and is moving along the signal line, not giving a clear signal. Stochastic oscillator continues to give a pair sell signal today, being in the neutral zone and coming close to the oversold zone.

Forex recommendations: off the market.

Feasible event scenarios at Forex: in case of breakdown at the level of 1.6125 the pair will go to 1.6150 and 1.6180/90. If upward breakdown does not take place, the pair will continue to consolidate close to the current levels.

There was a lot of UK statistics releases last week:i It became known on Friday that level of consumer confidence in Great Britain rose to -28 points in February, as per GfK/NOP estimates, against the previous value of -29 points. The news was moderately optimistic for the Pound; however it did not save the Pound from sales.

According to CBI which was released earlier, decline in sales volume from 37 points to 6 points is quite logical, as the program of reduction in public expenditure gave its first results. At the same time in the retail sector of the country the sentiments remains the most pessimistic since 2009.

In addition, the level of retail sales rose by 1.9% m/m (+5.3% y/y) in January against expectations of growth by 0.2% m/m; net mortgage lending in the UK remained  invariable in January, at the level of STG 1.2 billion.

We would remind that a representative of the Bank of England Miles noted that according to regulator’s estimates, the process of scrapping of the program of stimulation is quite slow. Miles believes that there is no need in monetary policy tightening as suggested by the supporters of the rate increase who keep eye on inflation levels. According to him, sharp tightening of the monetary policy will harm British economy, while inflation will revert to its key level of 2% by the year 2012.

The data on the borrowing of the public sector released last week inspired players, which made it possible for the Pound to add about 20 pips, however failed to reverse general trend: the volume of net borrowing in Great Britain reduced to  STG5.252 billion in January against the level of -STG0.095 billion a year earlier. Statistics released earlier showed that index of houses prices Rightmove increased by 3.1% m/m (+0.3% y/y) in Great Britain. It is worth noting that different agencies, which monitor real estate market in the UK, use different indicators and as a result published data from time to time differs diametrically.

 

 

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