GBP: British Pound does not see guidelines at the beginning of the week

At the Forex currency market the British Pound Sterling rate is traded downward on Monday in response to obscure external background.

Forex forecast: MACD indicator for the pair GBP/USD is traded in the negative area and is going up while volumes are increasing, and is giving a buy signal. Stochastic Oscillator remains in the overbought zone and is giving a similar signal.

Forex recommendations: in case of breakdown at 1.5720, the pair will go to 1.5730 and 1.5760. Correction is possible.

Situation in Great Britain remains generally unchanged in terms of macro-statistics.

Unemployment continues to thrive in Britain. According to estimates, unemployment rate rose to 8.4% in November against the forecast of 8.3%, level of unemployed increased by 118 thousand over three months against +128 thousand in the previous three months. Similar situation is in the retail sector as well. Buyers failed to keep retailers happy in January: following the rise in volumes of sales in December, retail sale fell by 22% in January against +9 in December. This has been the lowest value since March 2009.Outlook in the retail sector is not too optimistic. Thus, companies in this sector can go to three-year lows again in February, as volumes of orders have declined once again.

British Prime Minister Cameron believes that as long as EU authorities do not take energetic measures to implementanti-crisis program, there is no point to raise the issue of increasing reserves of IMF. Therefore, Britain maintains tough stance in regards to the debt situation in Eurozone. Cameron thinks that Germany shall act faster and with more confidence.

The head of the Bank of England Mr. King, believes that expected decline in inflation assumes possibility of additional QE; however, rates will likely remain at the current levels. King emphasized that recovery of the British economy will be slow and jerky. He also said that terms of lending are detrimental to economic recovery. At the same time the Bank of England is ready to provide liquidity to banks if a need will be.

Representative of the Bank of England Mr.Posen said earlier that he still adheres to "dove-like" attitude to monetary policy in the country. Thus, he believes that inflation pressure is decreasing rapidly and economic growth is increasing, although in a slow pace. Decision on QE will be adopted at the meeting in February, now members of MPC are discussing possibility of increasing volumes of assets purchase. Posen stressed that this is not yet sufficient to stabilize situation in British economy.

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