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At the Forex currency market the British Pound Sterling rate is traded downward on Wednesday as external background and domestic news do not enable to continue upward correction.

Forex forecast: MACD indicator for the pair GBP/USD has broken through the signal line from top to bottom and is traded in the negative area, giving a sell signal. Stochastic Oscillator continues to grow in the neutral zone, indicating that buying will be relevant.

Forex recommendations: off the market.

Feasible event scenario at Forex: in case of break down at the level of 1.5530, target for selling will be the levels of 1.5520 and 1.5500.

It became known today that rating agency Fitch did not excluded probability that the UK ranking could be downgraded, as national budgetary reserves of the country have been rather depleted.  The agency believes that economic growth rate in the UK will slow down and influence of the European debt crisis will increase, which will eventually challenge current rating of the country.

The head of the Bank of England Mr. King said earlier that inflation will go down considerably, as slow growth of wages and spare capacity of the economy are currently making progress in this direction. In the next 6 months however, drastic changes cannot be expected: CPI will remain in the channel of the existing rates. This is the first time in the last few months when supposition about reduction of the inflation level has been made.  Representative of the Bank of England, a former “Hawk”, Mr. Dale noted that inflation rate would drop sharply next year; meanwhile the Bank of England would continue to stimulate economy.

According to observers from NABE, unemployment rate in the UK will be around 8.7% in 2012 against previous forecast of 8.5%; there is a chance that employment will increase up to 100 thousand in Q4 this year. It is expected that policy of the Bank of England will continue to be soft next year and GDP will amount to 2.2% in Q1 next year against predicted level of 2.5% in Q4 this year.

According to a representative of the Bank of England Mr. Weale, economy of the country will not reach pre-crisis levels until Q3 2013, and growth of capital will support consumption. He believes that monetary policy alone cannot fix up economy and there is a high possibility that QE will be launched if the state of economy does not improve after the first round of stimulation. Weale also indicated that there are signs of new recession.

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