GBP: British Pound hopes for correction

At the Forex currency market the British Pound Sterling rate makes attempts for correction on Thursday after massive sales this week. Meanwhile external background has not changed significantly; deterioration of the background has not happened either.

Forex forecast: MACD indicator for the pair GBP/USD is traded in the positive area; it started to descend again and is ready to shape a sell signal. Stochastic Oscillator has pushed away from oversold zone, however still remains in its boundaries and started to shape a buy signal.

Forex recommendations: off the market.

Feasible event scenario at Forex: : in case of break down at the level of 1.5760, target for the sale will be the levels of 1.5770 and 1.5790. If downward breakdown does not take place, the pair will to start to descend again at around 1.5720.

It became known today that consumer confidence index Nationwide in the UK declined to the record lows of 36 points in October against the forecast of 43 points. Consumer expectations fell to 48 points against previous level of 62 points.

It is a negative signal because steady economic growth cannot be expected without revival of consumer sentiments.

In addition, according to the data released yesterday the Bank of England has revised its inflationary expectations, as per the Bank estimates, in three years time CPI will be 1.5%, while volume QE will be STG275 billion and interest rate will be consistent with market expectations.

At that, Governor of the Bank of England immediately noted that economic situation in Britain remains complex and growth of industrial output shall be practically zero since mid-2012, although in the short-term it will be weaker than previously expected.

According to him, resources of monetary policy to stimulate economy are limited.

At the meeting which was held earlier, the Bank of England kept interest rate unchanged at the level of 0.50% per annum as expected.   The rate of the Bank of England is at the current record-breaking low level since March 2009, largely due to the weak economic growth and rapid rise in inflation. Follow-up comments did not add anything new, the Bank of England remained loyal to the conservative policy and left previous size of QE in the amount of 275 billion pounds. It will take regulator another three months to finalize purchases as part of an additional package to QE and after that he can revert to revision of its volume. Nevertheless, Central Bank increased QE package only in October, therefore, it is hardly realistic to expect any serious monetary measures from British regulator.

British Prime Minister Cameron believes that there is severe turbulence in the market now while Europe is experiencing hard time. The rise in the rates will be disastrous in the current situation especially for households; so, government’s sympathies are obviously not in favour of bankers.

 

 

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