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GBP: British Pound is encompassed with doubts at the beginning of new month
At the Forex currency market the British Pound Sterling rate is traded slightly downward on Wednesday in response to mixed investors' sentiments at the global capital markets.
Forex forecast: MACD indicator for the pair GBP/USD has broken through the signal line from bottom to top and has come to the positive area; however trades are sluggish and along the line, there is no clear signal. Stochastic Oscillator tends to come out of the overbought zone and is ready to shape a sell signal.
Forex recommendations: in case of breakdown at 1.5730, the pair will go to 1.5720 and 1.5690. A chance is high that the pair will consolidate at the current levels.
Presently, mixed sentiments in the market prevents the Pound to go upward, as investors questioned vital capacity of Greece, as well as lack of reasons for recessions in Eurozone. According to British Prime Minister Cameron, as long as EU authorities do not take energetic measures to implement anti-crisis program, there is no point to raise the issue of increasing IMF reserves. Therefore, Britain maintains tough stance in regards to the debt situation in Eurozone. Cameron thinks that Germany shall act faster and with more confidence.
Macro-economic situation is stable at the beginning of February. Labour sector remains in the difficult position: unemployment rate rose to 8.4% in November against the forecast of 8.3%, level of unemployed increased by 118 thousand over three months against +128 thousand in the previous three months. Similar situation is in the retail sector as well. Buyers failed to keep retailers happy in January: following the rise in volumes of sales in December, retail sale fell by 22% in January against +9 in December. This has been the lowest value since March 2009. Outlook in the retail sector is not too optimistic. Thus, companies in this sector can go to three-year lows again in February, as volumes of orders have declined once again.
It became known today that consumer confidence index GfK rose to -29 points in January against the level of -33 points in December. This is the record index since summer 2011 and is definitely very positive. According to the head of the Bank of England Mr. King, decline in inflation assumes possibility of additional QE; however, rates will likely remain at the current levels. King emphasized that recovery of the British economy will be slow and jerky. He also said that terms of lending are detrimental to economic recovery. At the same time the Bank of England is ready to provide liquidity to banks if a need will be.
