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At the Forex currency market the British Pound Sterling rate demonstrates recovery on Wednesday after massive sales of the pair GBP/USD as part of investors’ risk aversion.
 
Forex forecast: MACD indicator is in the positive area for the pair GBP/USD and continues to go down, giving a pair sell signal. Stochastic Oscillator goes up in the neutral zone and is giving a pair buy signal.

Forex recommendations: off the market.
 
Feasible event scenario at Forex: in case of breakdown at the level of 1.6130, the pair’s target will become the levels of 1.6150 and 1.6170. If the level of 1.6080 is exceeded, traders’ targets will be 1.6050 and 1.6010.
 
Macro-economic calendar was uneventful on Monday and Tuesday; external background was the main movement driver. Following the meeting of the Bank of England last week it became known that interest rate was kept at the previous level of 0.50% per annum, volume of debt securities repurchase was also left unchanged, 200 billion pound sterling.

The Pound responded to the lack of allusions regarding the start time of the monetary policy tightening by drastic decline. Objectively levels of inflation have been above the levels indicated by the regulator for over a year already, increasing pressure on the recovery of the British economy which is not too steady. Meanwhile interest rate is kept at the level of 0.5% per annum. The increase of VAT in the UK at the beginning of this year contributed to the growth of prices in British shops – the index rose to 24 month highs on annual basis in February. According to the estimates of BRC retailers’ prices rose by 2.7% y/y last month against the rise by 2.5% in January.

The data on production output of Great Britain for January became known earlier – the index has increased rapidly over the past 16 years (+1.0% m/m, +6.8% y/y) while the forecast of growth by 0.8% m/m. Statistics been particularly strong compared with the decline of the index in December last year.
The data of Friday showed that production in the British construction sector reduced by 7.5% m/m in January; however it increased by 5.6% on annual basis. The index fell by 16.6% y/y earlier in December due to harsh weather conditions.

The data on the unemployment rate in the UK in January is going to be released today at 12:30 Moscow time, the forecast is 7.9%.