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At the Forex currency market the British Pound Sterling rate almost stands still on Thursday morning, tending to continue its growth, which however will require external catalysts, because the GDP lacks internal cause for growing. 

Forex forecast: MACD indicator is in the negative area for the pair GBP/USD, and is going up, giving a buy signal. Stochastic Oscillator remains in the overbought zone, maintaining a buy signal.

Forex recommendations: in case of break down at the level of 1.6170, the pair will go to 1.6185 ? 1.6200.

If upward breakdown does not take place the pair will consolidate at the current levels.Interesting information for the Pound will be released this afternoon: investors will receive the UK data on the retail sales in June.

If indicator continues the decline of May, it will become a signal for the GDP sales. The minutes of meeting of the Bank of England, which was made public yesterday indicates that MPC ranks are still suffering from the split:  Will and Dale continue to vote for the rate increase by 25 basis points.In general, most members of the Monetary Committee believes that it is very unlikely that tightening of the monetary policy will take place in the short term, moreover, there is an opinion that most likely economic weakness will last longer than expected.Moody’s believe that the UK DGP will rise by 1.6% this year; in 2012 – by 2.1%; while the growth in 2010 had been by 1.3%.

At the same time unemployment rate will vary in the range of 7.8-8.0%. The forecast of the agency is based on the belief that the Bank of England will raise interest rate by 25 basis points before the end of this year and by another 1% -over the next year.Last Friday Citigroup reported a change in the rate forecast of the UK, shifting expectations of growth rate into Q2 2012 from Q4 2011 earlier.As it became known earlier, CPI in Great Britain fell by 0.1% m/m (4.2% y/y) in June versus the forecast of growth by 0.2% m/m.

In addition, overall trade balance in the UK amounted to -stg4.06 billion in May against the forecast of stg2.700 billion. It seems that the rise of imports in May triggered the growth of deficit in trade balance of the country. According to the data released earlier, unemployment rate in the UK amounted to 7.7% in March-May, level of unemployed reduced by 26 thousand within the same period. The level of unemployed rose by 24 thousand in June, while unemployment rate amounted to 4.7%.

Average weekly earnings in Great Britain rose by 2.3% including bonuses in May against the growth of 2% in April.According to the forecast made by NIESR, GDP in Great Britain will rise by 0.1% in June against the revised level of 0.5% in May. It is logical, because economic situation in the UK remains tense. Comparable sales index BRC in Great Britain reduced by 0.6% in June against the slump by 2.1% y/y in May.  

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