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At the Forex currency market the British Pound Sterling rate is traded downward on Friday after yesterday’s rise before the weekend.

Forex forecast: MACD indicator for the pair GBP/USD is growing in the negative area, shaping a buy signal. Stochastic Oscillator has come into overbought zone, giving a similar signal.

Forex recommendations: in case of break down at the level of 1.6088, target for the purchase will be the levels of 1.6095 ? 1.6105.

It became known today that consumer confidence index Gfk in the UK fell to -32 points in October against the forecast of -30 points. Thus, the level of confidence of British consumers fell to 32-month low.

As it became known earlier retail price index BRC in the UK rose by 0.2% m/m (+2.7% y/y) in September. Volume of retail sales BRC in the UK increased by 0.3 y/y in September. Thus, according to the survey of the British Consortium of Retailers volume of retail sales rose slightly on annual basis last month; however monthly dynamics is mixed. Prices for food continued to grow, demand for clothes and footwear fell despite the seasonality. Earlier it became known that retail price index BRC in the UK increased by 0.2% m/m (+2.7% y/y) in September. Volume of retail sales BRC in the UK increased by 0.3 y/y in September. Thus, according to the survey of the British Consortium of Retailers volume of retail sales rose slightly on annual basis last month; however monthly dynamics is mixed. Prices for food continued to grow, demand for clothes and footwear fell despite the seasonality. Therefore, basic demand is minimal at the moment. The data released earlier showed that volume of production output in the UK increased by 0.2% m/m (-1.0% y/y) in August.

Debates regarding monetary policy are still going on in the UK. Thus, Mr. Bean noted earlier, that as the result of QE program, the level of inflation can rise by 0.5%; however positive effect of the incentive program is that GDP will get additional +0.5%.

Meanwhile, member of MPC Mr. Dale noted earlier that he also expects sharp decline in CPI at the beginning of 2012. According to Mr. Will, a member of the Bank of England and MPC, British economy demonstrates slow growth rate and probable recession in Q4 would not have been a great surprise.

The head of the Bank of England Mervyn King noted that Britain has effective medium-term financial plan and if QE1 had not been introduced, situation with bank lending would have been much worse. However, there is a double-edged sword here and no one can guarantee that QE2 can increase the volume of borrowing.

Meanwhile, King expects sharp decline of inflation in 2012. CPI in the UK rose by 0.6% m/m (+5.2% y/y) in September against the growth of 4.5% y/y in August. Obviously, inflationary pressure has soared upward, which creates new obstacles to economy. We would remind that in the outcome of the meeting in October, the Bank of England decided to leave interest rate unchanged at the level of 0.50% per annum, at the same time increasing volume of the assets repurchase program. Therefore, QE was increased to 275 billion pounds against the previous level of 200 billion pounds. In the follow-up comments the head of the Bank of England Mervin King said that the expansion of the assets repurchase program has been provoked by the slow growth of the global economy, however QE will have a positive impact on the British economy in the future. According to him these measures are preventive since Britain is in the middle of the drastic crisis now.

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