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At the Forex currency market the British Pound Sterling rate continues to fall on Thursday morning; this downward movement meets our expectations of the medium-term channel for the GDP/USD because the   Pound has a very low chance even for the corrective rebound.

Forex forecast: MACD indicator for the pair GBP/USD continues to go down in the negative area, giving a sell signal; volumes are increasing. Stochastic Oscillator is in the neutral zone, it has finished trades being along the signal line and started to go down, giving a sell signal.

Forex recommendations: in case of break down at the level of 1.5430, sales target will be the levels of 1.5410 and 1.5380. If downward breakdown does not take place, the pair will consolidate close to the current levels.

External background continues to be the main catalyst for the sales of the GDP- investors are not too willing to buy, keeping risks in mind, although the currency has reached very attractive levels for the purchase.Statistics released this morning showed that consumer confidence index Nationwide amounted to 48 points in August versus preliminary level of 49 and the forecast of 47 points. It is not yet the cause for optimism; nevertheless index of expenditure demonstrates increase: it had been 79 in August against preliminary 72. 

Consumer confidence is stable so far; although it remains in close proximity to historic lows. People are ready to spend money; however clearer economic outlooks are required for them to gain more confidence. Minutes of the last meeting of the bank of England which was made public yesterday, took market by surprise: all 9 members of the Monetary Committee voted to maintain interest rate at the low levels.

Nevertheless, MPC started to contemplate seriously about expanding of the QE program.It became known earlier that retail sales in the UK fell by 0.2% m/m, in August; the index has not changed on annual basis. In addition, Mr. Cable said this morning that program QE will enable economy to regain both consumer and business confidence if they press ahead with a program in the same volumes. The data released earlier was interesting: index of retail sales in the UK amounted to +0.6% m/m (+5.2% y/y), which agreed with expectations.

In addition, consumer price index CPI rose by 0.6% m/m (+4.5% y/y) in August against the forecast of growth by 0.6% m/m. It became known this week that house prices Rightmove increased by 0.7% m/m in September. The data on the real estate sector from other leading agencies will be known soon, which will provide a clearer outlook.

Meanwhile, we can see the lack of offers as it emphasized by Rithmove and upward pressure from the very low interest rates, which encourage the growth of the house prices; plus to this low level of public confidence to economy and reluctance of people to spend money, caused by obscure economic prospects.

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