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The Japanese Yen rate rises in price again at the Forex currency market on Tuesday, since investors use the JPY as a safe harbor, expecting that the data on Eurozone and the US, scheduled for the release today, is not going to be very positive.  

Forex forecast: MACD indicator for the pair USD/JPY is in the negative area, and started to increase, giving a pair buy signal. Stochastic Oscillator is moving sluggishly along the signal line in the neutral zone, not giving a clear signal.

Forex recommendations: off the market.

Feasible event scenario at Forex: in case of breakdown at the level of 81.60 the pair will go to 81.45 and 81.25. If downward breakdown does not take place the pair will consolidate in the current range.

Macro-economic statistics for March which is being released this week shows weakness of the economy; index of coincident indicators in Japan fell by 3.3% m/m in May against the preliminary estimate of 3.2%; index of leading indicators in Japan decreased by 3.9% m/m in March versus preliminary estimate of -4.5%;In other respects situation in the Japanese economy remains unchanged.

Japanese Economy Minister is confident that the economy of the Country of the Rising Sun is very easy to adapt to various changes and prior to the earthquake the state of economy had improved. “We are making progress in the fight against limited supply and by the end of this fiscal year GDP will increase by 1%” –he said. The Minister is also assured that economy can avoid recession. Ex-deputy head of the Bank of Japan Mr. Muto said this morning that national economy is weak and will reach the bottom in QIII this year. Future economic prospects are vague. 

It was made public earlier that consumer confidence fell to 33.1 points in April against the level of 38.6 points in March, at the same time index of CGPI rose by 0.9% ?/? in April against the growth by 0.6% m/m in March. According to the data released earlier, current account balance in Japan fell by 34.3%, to Y1.679 trillion in March against expected -32.0%. The data released earlier showed that leading indicators index decreased by 4.5% and index of coincident indicator subsided by 3.2%. In addition it is also became known that gold and foreign currency reserves of Japan have reached a new peak level.

Toward the end of last week, the Bank of Japan decided to leave the level of the key rate unchanged in the range of 0-0.1%. It is obvious that recession in the Japanese economy is preserved in full, however regulator still withholds from nullification of the rate.

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