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At the Forex currency market the Japanese Yen rate almost stands still on Friday: after three days of active sales caused by the surge of euphoria among investors, the currency will probably be in demand as a“safe” harbor again.

Forex forecast: MACD indicator is in the negative area for the pair USD/JPY; it has shifted into sideways movement and is not giving a clear signal. Stochastic Oscillator has come into overbought zone and maintains a buy signal.

Forex recommendations: in case of breakdownat the level of 77.70, the pair will go to 77.85 and 78.10. Consolidation near the current levels is not excluded.

It is quite possible that after resolution of Greek issue, investors will resume buying of the JPY again.

The head of the Bank of Japan Mr. Shirakawa said earlier that the regulator is prepared to reconsider volume of the asset repurchase program depending on the state of economy. Market has heard suchallegations for several months already; however the Yen steps back for neither monetary nor natural reason. Investors have lost interest in currencies which are “safe” harbours and appetite to risk is visible to unaided eye.

Meanwhile, domestic situation in the Countryof the Rising Sun is complex. The fact that cannot be disregarded is that tradedeficit has been recorded in Japan for the first time in 30 years. Exports inthe country fell in December for the third time, which triggered trade deficiton annual basis. According to the Ministry of Finance, shipments reduced by 8%y/y last month. Budget deficit in Japan amounted to $32 billion (2.49 trillionyen). It seems that Japanese economy has been deprived of one of the mainsupportive tools - its exports. It seems that political vacuum has been createdin Japan; the head of the Bank of Japan Mr. Shirakawa noted this morning thatmaster politicians are required to fight effectively against both expensive Yenand deflation.

Unemployment rate rose to 4.6% in December against the level of 4.5% in November. At the same time, the level ofunemployed fell by 100 thousand against 80 thousand a month earlier. Nevertheless, this data has not radically affected general trend.  Laboursector has been strongly affected by the overall economic slump in the country.Wages in Japan continue to decline; the data in December showed decline of 0.2%y/y, the same as in November. Therefore, Japanese wages have been declining for8 months out of 12. Some other positive data was more positive –preliminary volumes of industrial output rose by 4.0% m/m in December againstexpectations of growth of 2.7%.

Currently, economic stimulus programs for thetotal amount of 20 trillion yen are being implemented in Japan. They weredesigned to increase demand and finalize work on eliminating aftermaths oftsunami and earthquake in March. These funds should also revive employmentsector. According to Japanese statistics released this week, bank lending roseby 0.7% y/y in January against the forecast of +0.5% y/y; current accountbalance amounted to Y303.5 billion in December against expectations of Y340.1billion.

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