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At the Forex currency market the Japanese Yen rate continues to slide upward resolutely on Wednesday, unlike most of the other currencies, and catalysts for the JPY are being updated virtually every day.

Forex forecast: MACD indicator for the pair USD/JPY is in the positive area and continues to move along the signal line, not giving a clear signal. Stochastic Oscillator is going down slowly in the neutral zone and is giving a moderate buy signal.

Forex recommendations: in case of breakdown at the level of 77.70, the pair will go to 77.60 and 77.45. If downward breakdown does not take place, the pair will consolidate at the current levels.

It became known today that preliminary retail sales in Japan fell by 2.3% y/y in November against the forecast of zero changes, consumer spending reduced by 3.2% y/y in November versus expectations of decline of 1.1% y/y. In addition, preliminary volume of industrial output decreased by 2.6% m/m in November (-1.5% y/y) against projected value of -0.8% m/m (-2.0% y/y).

The data is not impressive: the pace of decline is definitely accelerating, which is a negative factor for the recovering economy of Japan and for the forecasts; nevertheless, the JPY feels quite at ease.

Statistics released earlier this week, was slightly more optimistic: number of begun housing construction decreased by 0.3% y/y in November against the forecast of decline of 5.0% y/y; orders in the construction sector rose by 21.0% y/y in November versus the growth of 24.3% y/y in October.

In addition, the minutes of the last meeting of the Bank of Japan which was released today, stated that it is necessary to trace back the effect of the recent soft policy; special concern is caused by the potential impact of the expensive Yen.

We would remind that a meeting of the Bank of Japan, which was held in December, was gloomy. Thus, the regulator noted that growth of economic activity has slowed down and activity in Japanese economy is zero. The Bank has revised economic situation assessment downward in comparison with November, which is logical. Japanese economy will start to recover as soon as pressure from Europe diminishes.

Interest rate in the country was left unchanged at the level of 0.1%. This decision had been expected. The head of the Bank of Japan Mr. Shirakawa noted earlier that growth of the JPY continues to negatively impact on the local economy and that current rise of the JPY was provoked by European crisis. He believes that if appropriate measures are not taken straight away, economy of Japan will decline sharply by 2030. Mr. Shirakawa also noted that interventions against Yen are acceptable and effective. However, practical steps to support the words have not been made: apparently the Japanese regulator is in the “fly-through mode” presently moreover, the Yen does not give grounds for intervention due to its moderate activity. Statistics released earlier was negative. Japanese statistics is negative today. Trade balance deficit amounted to Y684.7 billion in November against the forecast of -Y442.4 billion; at the same time exports decreased by 4.5% y/y in November, while imports increased by 11.4% y/y. It is getting more difficult for Japan to maintain economic growth rate, as both, significant weakness of the world economy and strong Yen complicates the process.

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