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At the Forex currency market the Japanese Yen rate is traded in the previous ascending channel at the end of the week. Situation with JPY remains unchanged for over six days.

Forex forecast: MACD indicator for the pair USD/JPY is traded in the positive area and is going down, giving a buy signal; however, at the same time volumes are decreasing. Oscillator remains in the oversold zone and is giving a sell signal.

Forex recommendations: in case of breakdown at the level of 76.70, the pair will go to 76.65 and 76.50. If downward breakdown does not take place, the pair will consolidate at the current levels.

Salary levels in Japan continue to reduce: according to statistics released today average salary was revised to -0.3% in September against decline of 0.2% in August.

At two-day meeting which finished yesterday, the Bank of Japan decided to keep interest rate at the previous level of 0.10% per annum. Previous volume of assets purchases was also left unchanged (20 trillion yen) as it has been revised only at the end of October.  It is not excluded that regulator will continue easing of the monetary policy if the Yen will rise in price especially knowing that after-war highs of the YPY have been tested much more than once.

Japanese economy is still strongly dependant on the external demand, which is not very reliable at the moment, which encourages Yen to grow.

Earlier, Association of Economic Planning of the Cabinet of Japan arose market’s interest in new macro statistics forecasts. Thus, as per their estimates, real GDP in Japan will rise by 0.24% in the fiscal year of 2011 against the forecast in October of  +0,22%. In 2012 fiscal year GDP will increase by 2.22% (+2.30% previously). Net CPI this year will amount to -0.12% (-0.15% forecast in October), and in 2013 net inflation will be +0.18%. Revised volume of industrial output in Japan amounted to -3.3% m/m (-3.3% y/y) in September against preliminary level of -4.0% m/m. In addition, preliminary real GDP in Japan rose by 1.5% q/q (+6.0% y/y) in Q3 against the forecast of growth by 5.9% y/y. Plus to this, according to the data released last week, index of economic observers rose to 45.9 points in October versus 45.3 points in September. This has been the first growth of the index in three months. Judging by statistics Japanese economy has fully recovered from disaster in March. However, negative impact of the expensive national currency is still very strong and it is not clear yet how long current balance in economy will persist.

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