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At the Forex currency market the Japanese Yen rate is getting weaker at the beginning of the week, while the USD is absolutely popular in the role of the main safe currency.

Forex forecast: MACD indicator for the pair USD/JPY is in the positive area and continues to move along the signal line, not giving a clear signal. Stochastic Oscillator is going down in the neutral zone and is giving a pair sell signal.

Forex recommendations: off the market.

Feasible event scenario at Forex: in case of breakdown at the level of 78.00, the pair will go to 78.10 and 78.20. If upward breakdown does not take place, the pair will consolidate at the current levels.

There has not been any important Japanese news at the beginning of the week, although the Yen is getting weak even without fundamental grounds. Investors are not sure that European risks will not grow in proportion to the time, which has been wasted on the dialogues, therefore they try to rescue from potential losses in the USD which became a safe currency now.

According to released statistics business sentiments in Japan are deteriorating: Tankan study proves that index of large producers amounted to -4 points in Q4 against preliminary +2 points and the forecast of March has shifted to -5 points against previously predicted +4.  This is a negative signal for the prospects of Japanese economy.

The head of the Bank of Japan Mr. Shirakawa noted earlier that growth of the JPY continues to negatively impact on the local economy and that current rise of the JPY was provoked by European crisis. He believes that if appropriate measures are not taken straight away, economy of Japan will decline sharply by 2030. Mr. Shirakawa also noted that interventions against Yen are acceptable and effective. However, practical steps to support the words have not been made: apparently the Japanese regulator is in the “fly-through mode” presently moreover, the Yen does not give grounds for intervention due to its moderate activity.

The data released this week showed that consumer confidence index in Japan fell for the first time in 7 months in November (38.1 against 38.6 previously), as global economy significantly affects Japan and its expensive Yen as well. Real GDP in Japan was revised downward to +1.4% q/q (+5.6% y/y) in Q3 against preliminary +1.5% q/q (+6.0% y/y). New block of statistics showed that surplus of current account in Japan amounted to Y562.4 billion in October, demonstrating a fall of 62.4% y/y. Morning statistics also showed that volume of credit outstanding in the country increased by 0.2% y/y last month. It indicates the increase in demand for corporate financing and can be perceived positively. Level of bank lending is also growing steadily (+0.2% y/y in November: +0.1% y/y in October; -0.3% y/y in September).

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