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At the Forex currency market the Japanese Yen rate started to lose positions in pairing with the USD on Wednesday after the growth due to the interest to it as protective currency

Forex forecast: MACD indicator is in the positive area for the pair USD/JPY; however it is still going down, maintaining a pair sell signal. Stochastic Oscillator has come out of the oversold zone today and goes upward, giving a pair buy signal.

Forex recommendations: off the market.
Feasible event scenario at Forex: in case of breakdown at the level of 83.00 the pair will go to 83.15 and 83.30. If a breakdown takes place at the level of 82.70, the level of 82.50 will become the target of decline.
The following Japanese news was released today:
– Surplus of trade balance amounted to Y196.5 billion in March against the level of Y931.94 billion a year earlier;
– Tertiary index increased by 0.8% m/m in February against the fall by 0.1% in January;
– Level of export decreased by 2.2% y/y in March;
– Level of import increased by 11.9% y/y.

Therefore, Japanese economy had really expanded but it was before the earthquake in March.
Statistics released earlier was positive (unemployment rate amounted to 4.6% in February, unrevised; balance of current account increased by 3.0% y/y in February against the fall by 47.6% in January; level of import increased by 3.3% y/y, export rose by 4.1% y/y).

Earlier statistics showed that the revised volume of industrial output in Japan rose by 1.8% m/m in February against the preliminary level of +0.9%. This is a mediate indicator for the Yen because it shows the situation prior to the earthquake in March. Statistics released this week showed that volume of orders for the basic production equipment in Japan reduced by 2.3% m/m in February for the first time in the last three months while a month earlier the index had increased by 4.2%. The indicator gives an idea about the amount of capital investments in production sector for the next 3-6 months. Thus, continuation of companies’ cost reduction threatens to the Japanese economy in addition to the fact that the situation in the business sector has already been very hard after the series of earthquakes and tsunamis.

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