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The Japanese Yen rate started to go down at the Forex currency market on Friday because negative factor at the global capital markets affects even “safe” currencies.

Forex forecast: MACD indicator for the pair USD/JPY has crossed the signal line from top to bottom, giving a pair sell signal. Stochastic Oscillator tends to go out of the oversold zone, and started to form a pair buy signal. 

Forex recommendations: off the market.

Feasible event scenario at Forex: in case of breakdown at the level of 80.50 the pair will go to 80.75 and 80.90. If the level of 80.30 is exceeded, traders’ target will be the level of 80.10.
Markets in Japan are opened today, for the first time after “Gold Week”.
In general the situation in the economy of the Country of the Rising Sun remains almost unchanged.

The head of the Bank of Japan Mr. Shirakawa said earlier that following the results of quarters I and II, it can be expected that level of GDP will decline due to the serious aftermath of the earthquake in March. He thinks that the main problem is the shutdown of the production facilities, which in any way or other is connected with the power failure. Shirakawa believes that as soon as the power supply will reach the level of 11 March, production capacity will be restored. At the same time Central Bank is still ready to take measures to support economy, if required.

Japan considers the possibility of raising taxes up to 15% of the sales tax from the current 10%. It became known earlier that surplus of trade balance amounted to Y196.5 billion in March against the level of Y931.94 billion a year earlier; tertiary index rose by 0.8% m/m in February against the fall by 0.1% in January - Japanese economy had really expanded, at least before the earthquake in March. Meanwhile, the level of export decreased by 2.2% y/y in March, while level of import increased by 11.9% y/y which is logical.

Note that the Bank of Japan believes that real GDP will rise by 0.6% this year against the forecast of growth by 1.6% in January.
As it became known earlier, the Bank of Japan has not changed interest rate, leaving it at the level of 0.1% per annum. Japanese data released after that was also mixed: unemployment rate remained at the previous level of 4.6% in March; preliminary data on industrial output fell by 15.3% m/m in March against the growth by 1.8% m/m in February; net CPI decreased by 0.1% y/y in march which became the 25th fact of reduction in a row; household spending decreased by 8.5% y/y in march against the previous decline by 0.2%.

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