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At the Forex currency market the Japanese Yen rate continues to demonstrate weakness on Tuesday. This week, Japanese monetary authorities reported about probability of new intervention against expensive JPY. This news is still relevant and even weak statistics could not prevail over it.

Forex forecast: MACD indicator for the pair USD/JPY has slowed down its fall near the signal line and is now moving along it, not giving a clear signal. Oscillator continues to go up in the neutral zone and is maintaining a buy signal.

Forex recommendations: in case of breakdown at the level of 78.00, the pair will go to 78.10 and 78.30.

This morning statistics showed that unemployment rate in Japan increased to 4.5% in October against the level of 4.1% in September, while expectations were at 4.2%. The rate is increasing for the first time in three months, which is an indication of a new round of slowdown in Japanese economy. Large funds have been invested into Japanese economy following the earthquake in March, which explains fairly rapid recovery; however the rate of recovery started to decelerate lately. It should be closely tracked to what extent European economic slump would affect Japanese economy.

The head of the Bank of Japan Mr. Shirakawa noted yesterday that growth of the JPY continues to negatively impact on the local economy and that current rise of the JPY was caused by the European crisis. He believes that if appropriate measures are not taken straight away, economy of Japan will decline sharply by 2030.

At that Mr. Shirakawa noted that interventions against Yen are acceptable and effective.

This last comment seems to be very unfavourable for the JPY.

Earlier, Association of Economic Planning of the Cabinet of Japan rose market’s interest to new macro- statistics forecasts. Thus, as per their estimates, real GDP in Japan will rise by 0.24% in the fiscal year of 2011 against the forecast in October of  +0,22%. In 2012 fiscal year GDP will increase by 2.22% (+2.30% previously). Net CPI this year will amount to -0.12% (-0.15% forecast in October), and in 2013 net inflation will be +0.18%. It became known earlier that index of coincident indicators in Japan was revised to -1.3 points in September against previous level of -1.4 points.

Rating agency S&P said earlier that Japanese rating is going to be revised soon, as financial situation in the country is deteriorating every day. According to the economists of the Agency it is hardly probable that Japan will be able to avoid debt problems. Revised volume of industrial output in Japan amounted to -3.3% m/m (-3.3% y/y) in September against preliminary level of -4.0% m/m. In addition, preliminary real GDP in Japan rose by 1.5% q/q (+6.0% y/y) in Q3 against the forecast of growth by 5.9% y/y. The data released earlier showed that net national CPI in Japan decreased by 0.1% y/y in October, which agreed with the forecast.

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