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JPY: Slight correction in Japanese Yen does not revoke general weakness
At the Forex currency market the Japanese Yen rate is traded upward on Tuesday after yesterday's decline. Presently, there is almost no interest in JPY; most sensitive investors "sit out" in the USD which is clearly demonstrated in the pair' daily chart.
Forex forecast: MACD indicator for the pair USD/JPY is in the positive area and continues to move along the signal line,not giving a clear signal. Stochastic Oscillator is going down in the neutral zone and is giving a pair sell signal.
Forex recommendations: off the market.
Feasible event scenario at Forex:in case of breakdown at the level of 78.00, the pair will go to 78.10 and78.20. If upward breakdown does not take place, the pair will consolidate atthe current levels.
Finance Minister of Japan Mr. Azumihas noted today that markets keep confidence in the USD. Declaration about intention of Japan to buy Chinese bonds was of interest. Azumi said that final decision has not been adopted yet and prospects of assets purchase should not be interpreted as a complete abandonment of dollar's investments. On the other hand it is quite clear that Japan takes preventive measures in the hope of protecting the country from risks in the future.
The head of the Bank of Japan Mr. Shirakawa noted earlier that growth of the JPY continues to negatively impact on thelocal economy and that current rise of the JPY was provoked by European crisis.He believes that if appropriate measures are not taken straight away, economyof Japan will decline sharply by 2030. Mr. Shirakawa also noted that interventions against Yen are acceptable and effective.However, practical steps to support the words have not been made: apparentlythe Japanese regulator is in the "fly-through mode" presently more over, the Yen does not give grounds for intervention due to its moderate activity.
The data released this weeks howed that consumer confidence index in Japan fell for the first time in 7months in November (38.1 against 38.6 previously), as global economy significantly affects Japan and its expensive Yen as well. Real GDP in Japanwas revised downward to +1.4% q/q (+5.6% y/y) in Q3 against preliminary +1.5%q/q (+6.0% y/y). New block of statistics showed that surplus of current account in Japan amounted to Y562.4 billion in October, demonstrating a fall of62.4% y/y. Morning statistics also showed that volume of credit out standing in the country increased by 0.2% y/y last month. It indicates the increase indemand for corporate financing and can be perceived positively. Level of bank lending is also growing steadily (+0.2% y/yin November: +0.1% y/y in October; -0.3% y/y in September). According to statistics, business sentiments in Japan aredeteriorating: Tankan study proves that index of large producers amounted to -4points in Q4 against preliminary +2 points and the forecast of March hasshifted to -5 points against previously predicted +4. This is a negative signal for the prospects of Japanese economy.
