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The New Zealand Dollar continues corrective rollback from the highs under the pressure of the external background and investors’ aversion from risks.

Forex forecast: MACD indicator is in the positive area for the pair NZD/USD and continues to give a pair buy signal. Stochastic Oscillator tends to go out of the oversold zone, starting to give a weak sell signal.

Forex recommendations: off the market.

Feasible event scenario at Forex: in case of breakdown at the level of 0.7790 the pair will go to 0.7770 and 0.7750. If a breakdown will not take place the pair will consolidate close to the current levels.

According to the representative of the Finance Ministry of New Zealand the country will not need to reduce interest rate once again as the situation in the economy has relatively stabilized and this factor supports the NZD.

Earlier the country reported about the positive trade surplus for the first time in the last 8 months. High raw material prices which have been maintained in the world market have become a catalyst for this, as well as the growth of export levels of timber and dry milk. Exports increased by 17% y/y in February; imports – by 23% y/y, to the level of 3.86 billion of NSD. Exports in New Zealand amounts to about 30% of the total GDP level and the increase in this article will have a positive impact on the national economy.

It became known yesterday that level of business confidence in New Zealand declined by 27% in QI, as per NIESR estimates against the level of +8 points in QIV.

Publications of the first data of the QI 2011 started last week, which had been mostly weak. The NZD is ignoring this statistics so far. The data of March has not been very impressive either: business confidence index NBNZ fell to -8.7 in New Zealand against 34.5 in the previous period. It is difficult to judge which factor caused such rollback and it is worth waiting for the new data to be able to speak about one or another trend.

Balance of current account in New Zealand fell to -NZ$3.5 billion in QIV against the data of QIII in the amount of -NZ$1.77billion. Most likely the balance has narrowed due to the temporary factors and it is quite possible that traders will see the changes in the situation.

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