New Zealand Dollar continues to go down at the Forex currency market on Thursday and volumes of sales indicate that bears are confident.
Forex forecast: MACD indicator is in the positive area for the pair NZD/USD and tends to decline, giving a pair sell signal. Stochastic Oscillator started to go up, giving a pair buy signal.
Forex recommendations: considering external background we can expect that sales will be continued for the pair and potential targets will be 0.7630 and 0.7610.
In general the situation in the economy of New Zealand remained almost unchanged
The data on the business confidence NAB for January was released last week: the index demonstrated growth rate to 4 points against the decline by 3 points in December. Index of business conditions reduced to 6 points in the first month of the year against the previous value of 6. In addition the data on the houses prices in January became know, which showed reduction by 1.5% y/y against -0.9% y/y in December.
At the last meeting in January the Reserve Bank of New Zealand made an expected decision to keep interest rate at the previous level of 3.0% per annum. In the follow-up comments, the head of the RBNZ, Bollard stressed that the rates will be sequentially increased over the next two years. However, the regulator will keep the rate at the low levels until the situation in the economy regains confidence and the recovery process becomes stable. As for the internal economy of New Zealand, economic activity in the second half of 2010 turned out weaker than the forecast and the reduction of spending in the retail sector in QIV is not ruled out.
Statistics published earlier was pessimistic: it became known last week that unemployment rate in New Zealand rose to 6.8% in QIV, 2010 against the previous level of 6.4% in QIII while economists expected the growth of 6.5%. At the same time employment rate of the population in New Zealand fell by 0.5% in QIV (-11 thousand jobs) against the forecast of growth by 0.2%.