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At the Forex currency market the New Zealand rate is traded upwardon Tuesday, following market's trend. However, the growth is a part of acorrective rebound.

Forex forecast: MACD indicator for the pair NZD/USD is in the negative area and resumed its decline, giving a sell signal. Stochastic Oscillator is going up inthe neutral zone and is giving a buy signal.

Forex recommendations: in case o fbreak down at the level of 0.7595 the pair will go to ?0.7600 ? 0.7630.

Situation in New Zealand remain sunchanged in terms of macro-statistics today. Current rise in the NZD today is explained by relatively quiet external background, as long as Europe does notgive new negative reasons to avoid risks yet.

It became known yesterday that business activity index in the service sector amounted to 56.6 points in November, as per BNZ estimates, against preliminary level of 51 points; thusthe index has reached twenty-month highs now. The report also showed that neworders of companies and enterprises, as well as sales became a catalyst foractivity. In addition, the rise in activity was recorded in the four major regions of the country for the first time this year.

GDP rose by 0.1% q/q (+1.5% y/y)in Q2 against the level of +0.9% q/q (+1.6% y/y) in Q1. Thus New Zealand economy is actually in the state of stagnation. GDP almost stopped growing in the last quarter, which only proves that the decision of the RBNZnot to change the levels of the interest rate was logical. The reportdisappointed market and currently it is quite possible that regulator will keep interest rates at this level for a long time, at least until the end of spring 2012. Permits to construct in New Zealand increased sharply by 10,0% in October against the fall of 1.3% y/y in September. 

Decision of the Reserve Bank ofNew Zealand last week was of no surprise to anyone. Interest rate was left atthe level of 2.5% per annum, since its level has already been revised lastmonth. In addition, the data released on Thursday showed that activity in the manufacturing industry fell by 1.4% q/q and remained unchanged on annual basisin Q3, against the fall of 0.7% in Q2, which is the consequence of slump in the world economy.

It became known earlier that trade balance in New Zealand was at the level of -NZ$282 million in October against the level of NZ$784 million in September. The index remained indeficit last month although it was higher than forecasts of economists. Volumes of export increased by 5.3% (NZ$3.9 billion) on annual basis in October andimports rose by 8.9% y/y due to demand for industrial production. Consumer confidence index ANZ in New Zealand declined to 108.4 points in December against 109.0 points earlier.

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