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Atthe Forex currency market the New Zealand Dollar rate goes down on Friday, thetrend of sluggish trading has lasted for the third consecutive day already.

Forex forecast: MACD indicator for the pair NZD/USD is going up in the positive areaand is giving a buy signal. Stochastic Oscillator goes down in the neutral zoneand is giving a sell signal.

Forex recommendations: in case of breakdownat the level of 0.8290, the pair will go to 0.8270 and 0.8250.

Macro-economic situation in New Zealand hasnot changed much in the last 24 hours.

It seems that market is going to take profitson long positions in high-yielding currencies, since it is doubtful that short-term active growth will be continued.

It became known yesterday that unemploymentrate fell to 6.3% in Q4 2011 against the level of 6.6% a quarter earlier. Thisis positive information indicating that, employment sector, being one of thesupportive factors for the economy, will be able to guarantee stability even incase of pessimistic external influence.

GDP in New Zealand increased by 0.8% q/q inQ3 (+1.9% y/y) against the forecast of +0.6% on quarterly basis. Significantsupport to the economy of New Zealand was provided by Rugby Championship whichattracted a lot of investment into the country. GDP rose by 0.1% q/q (+1.5%y/y) in Q2 against the level of +0.9% q/q (+1.6% y/y) in Q1. Thus, New Zealandeconomy is actually in the state of stagnation. GDP had almost stopped growing, butrevived later. Most likely the index will be weaker in Q4.

At the meeting in the end of January, theReserve Bank of New Zealand decided to leave interest rate at the minimal levelof 2.5% per annum. According to follow-up comments of the regulator, thisdecision is reasonable because world economic risks are still preserved,despite internal stability in New Zealand. RBNZ emphasized that inflationarypressure is being steadily contained; however NZD growth negatively affectsearnings of exporters.

According to the report of the Reserve Bankof New Zealand, the regulator is ready to act if conditions, appropriate forhis intervention will be created. In case if the slump of 2008 will berepeated, the RBNZ has a number of measures to avoid the slump of economy inthe global scale. It is all about the level of liquidity in the banks. Thedocument was submitted to authorities in December; however the contents of ithave been made public only last week. Activity index in the service sector ofNew Zealand fell to 50.6 points (-5.6 points) in December. Trade balanceamounted to +NZ$338 billion in December against the level of -NZ$307 billion inNovember. However, positive factor of the index has already been incorporatedinto the price.

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