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At the Forex currency market the New Zealand rate is growing moderately taking advantage of the stable external background and the decision of the Reserve Bank of New Zealand.

Forex forecast: MACD indicator for the pair NZD/USD is going up in the negative area and is giving a buy signal; volumes are maximal. Oscillator has left oversold zone and is giving a clear buy signal.

Forex recommendations: off the market.

Feasible event scenario at Forex: in case of breakdown at the level of 0.7615, the pair will go to 0.7620 and 0.7640.  There is a high probability that aggressive sellers will be back in the pair.

Today’s decision of the Reserve Bank of New Zealand was of no surprise to anyone. Interest rate was left at the level of 2.5% per annum, since its level has already been revised last month.

In addition, the data released on Thursday showed that activity in the manufacturing industry fell by 1.4% q/q and remained unchanged on annual basis in Q3, against the fall of 0.7% in Q2, which is the consequence of slowdown in the world economy.

Permits to construct in new Zealand increased sharply by 10,0% in October against the fall of 1.3% y/y in September. The data is positive; however the NZD has ignored this information.

trade balance in New Zealand was at the level of –NZ$282 million in October against the level of NZ$784 million in September. The index remained in deficit last month although higher than the forecasts of economists. Volumes of export increased by 5.3% (NZ$3.9 billion on annual basis in October and imports rose by 8.9% y/y due to demand for industrial production.

GDP in New Zealand rose by 0.1% q/q (+1.5% y/y) in Q2 against the level of +0.9% q/q (+1.6% y/y) in Q1. Thus New Zealand economy is actually in the state of stagnation. GDP almost stopped growing in the last quarter, which only proves that the decision of the RBNZ not to change the levels of the interest rate was logical. The report disappointed market and currently it is quite possible that regulator will keep interest rates at this level for a long time, at least until the end of spring 2012.

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