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The New Zealand Dollar rate goes down at the Forex currency market on Friday after reaching new historic highs this week. Investors are adopting profit taking positions in advance of the weekend, which is quite logical.

Forex forecast: MACD indicator is in the positive area for the pair NZD/USD, and is going up, giving a buy signal. Stochastic Oscillator goes up in the neutral zone, giving a similar signal.

Forex recommendations: in case of breakdown at the level of 0.8410, the pair will go to 0.8430 and 0.8450. Technical rebound could lead the pair to 0.8380.

Economic situation in New Zealand has not changed significantly this morning.

Trade balance in New Zealand was at the level of NZD$605 billion in May against the forecast of NZD$1000 billion. This is a negative data, because decline in the trade balance will indicate decline in the level of exports later, which will be the impact of cooling in Chinese economy.

Earlier, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand decided to keep interest rate unchanged at the minimum of 2.50% per annum, since it is going to continue its work on improvement in economic system. According to the head of the RBNZ, NZD has been overvalued because of high export prices for raw materials, therefore, national currency rate, which has increased over the last two months, has adverse impact on the rebalancing of the economy in New Zealand. Bollard expressed confidence that decline of the NZD will be gradual because currency intervention will not be able to change the trend.

Statistics released this week showed that GDP in New Zealand rose by 0.8% on quarterly basis (+1.4% y/y) in Q1 against the forecast of growth by 0.3% q/q (+0.5% y/y).

The indices have been very favourable, which supports the NZD.

It is possible that the data will be less positive in Q2; however in general, the trend will remain the same, which is favourable for the pair NZD/USD in long term outlook.

It became known earlier that business sentiment NZIER in New Zealand rose to 27 points in Q2 against -27 points earlier. In general, it is a positive factor.

The data released earlier showed that net level of budget deficit in New Zealand rose to -NZD$40 billion (20.4% billion of the country’s GDP) in May, which was below economists’ forecast. According to the estimates of the Finance Minister Mr. English, budget deficit is still too large and active measures are required to reduce it.

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