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At the Forex currency market the New Zealand rate is traded downward on Monday, as traders do not want to take risk, amid aggravations inthe external background.

Forex forecast: MACD indicator for the pair NZD/USD is in the negative area andresumed its decline, giving a sell signal. Stochastic Oscillator is going up inthe neutral zone and is giving a buy signal.

Forex recommendations: in case ofbreakdown at the level of 0.7590 the pair will go to 0.7580 and 0.75700.

It became known today that business activity index in the service sector amounted to 56.6 points inNovember, as per BNZ estimates, against preliminary level of 51 points; thusthe index has reached twenty-month highs now. The report also showed that neworders of companies and enterprises, as well as sales became a catalyst foractivity. Activity in the index was recorded in the four major regions of thecountry for the first time this year.

It became known earlier thattrade balance in New Zealand was at the level of -NZ$282 million in October against the level of NZ$784 million in September. The index remained indeficit last month although it was higher than forecasts of economists. Volumesof export increased by 5.3% (NZ$3.9 billion) on annual basis in October andimports rose by 8.9% y/y due to demand for industrial production. Consumerconfidence index ANZ in New Zealand declined to 108.4 points in Decemberagainst 109.0 points earlier. The NZD regained from this information underpressure from sellers.

GDP rose by 0.1% q/q (+1.5% y/y)in Q2 against the level of +0.9% q/q (+1.6% y/y) in Q1. Thus New Zealand economyis actually in the state of stagnation. GDP almost stoppedgrowing in the last quarter, which only proves that the decision of the RBNZnot to change the levels of the interest rate was logical. The reportdisappointed market and currently it is quite possible that regulator will keep interest rates at this level for a long time, at least until the end of spring 2012. Permits to construct in New Zealand increasedsharply by 10,0% in October against the fall of 1.3% y/y in September. 

Decision of the Reserve Bank of New Zealand last week was of no surprise to anyone. Interest rate was left atthe level of 2.5% per annum, since its level has already been revised lastmonth. In addition, the data released on Thursday showed that activity in the manufacturing industry fell by 1.4% q/q and remained unchanged on annual basisin Q3, against the fall of 0.7% in Q2, which is the consequence of slump in the world economy.

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