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The New Zealand dollar rate istraded downward at the Forex currency market on Monday, as investors’interest in risk remains very low.

Forex forecast: MACD indicatoris in the positive area for the pair NZD/USD, goes down, giving a sell signal.Stochastic Oscillator descends in the neutral zone, giving a buy signal.

Forex recommendations: off themarket.

Feasible event scenario atForex: in case of breakdown at the level of 0.8090 the pair will go to 0.8110and 0.8130. If upward breakdown does not take place the pair will aim at0.8030..

Economic situation in NewZealand is stable as a whole.

It became known last week, thatconsumer confidence index Westpac in New Zealand increased to 112.0 points inQ2 against the level of 97.7 points in Q1. Consumer confidence ANZ increased to112.5 points in June against the preliminary level of 103.3 points. Inaddition, volume of retail sales in New Zealand rose for the first time in thelast three quarters in Q1, which is a good sign of the economic recovery. Thus,indicator increased by 0.9% q/q which agreed with the forecast, excludinginflation.

Earlier, the Reserve Bank ofNew Zealand decided to keep interest rate unchanged at the minimum of 2.50% perannum, since it is going to continue its work on improvement in economicsystem. According to the head of the RBNZ, NZD has been overvalued because ofhigh export prices for raw materials, therefore, national currency rate, whichhas increased over the last two months, has adverse impact on the rebalancingof the economy in New Zealand. Bollard expressed confidence that decline of theNZD will be gradual because currency intervention will not be able to changethe trend.

Agency Fitch stated that NewZealand economy has demonstrated stabilization of the budget; however it is notsufficient yet to revise the rating outlook of the country from the current“negative”. Moody’s noted that authorities of New Zealandhave been doing a good job, and take every step to bring economy to its normalstate.

Note: that budget deficit inNew Zealand amounted to NZ$10.17 billion within 9 months, as of 31 March, whichhad been 15% higher than expected by economists. Terms of trade index in NewZealand rose to the 37-year highs in QI, demonstrating growth by 0.9% (+6.8%y/y). It could be one of the indications that New Zealand economy is recoveringas it reflects changes in prices for exports and imports. We would like topoint that the index is strongly correlated with the index of living standardin the country which is a positive sign.

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