Forex Blog
Blog-FX.Com

At the Forex currency market on Thursday the New Zealand rate is traded slightly upward in response to positive New Zealand statistics this morning; however external catalysts are required for a more significant rise.

Forex forecast: MACD indicator for the pair NZD/USD is in the negative area and resumed its decline, giving a sell signal. Stochastic Oscillator is going up in the neutral zone and is giving a buy signal.

Forex recommendations: in case of breakdown at the level of 0.7700, the pair will go to ? 0.7720 and 0.7740. There is a high chance of rebound.

It became known today that GDP in New Zealand increased by 0.8% q/q in Q3 (+1.9% y/y) against the forecast of +0.6% on quarterly basis. Significant support to the economy of New Zealand was provided by Rugby Championship which attracted a lot of investments into the country. GDP rose by 0.1% q/q (+1.5% y/y) in Q2 against the level of +0.9% q/q (+1.6% y/y) in Q1. Thus, New Zealand economy is actually in the state of stagnation. GDP almost stopped growing, however has revived later. Most likely the data in Q4 will be weaker.

It became known this week that business activity index in the service sector amounted to 56.6 points in November, as per BNZ estimates, against preliminary level of 51 points; thus the index has reached twenty-month highs now. The report also showed that new orders of companies and enterprises, as well as sales became a catalyst for activity. In addition, the rise in activity was recorded in the four major regions of the country for the first time this year.

Trade balance in New Zealand was at the level of -NZ$282 million in October against the level of NZ$784 million in September. The index remained in deficit last month although it was higher than forecasts of economists. Volumes of export increased by 5.3% (NZ$3.9 billion) on annual basis in October and imports rose by 8.9% y/y due to demand for industrial production. Consumer confidence index ANZ in New Zealand declined to 108.4 points in December against 109.0 points earlier.

Decision of the Reserve Bank of New Zealand last week was of no surprise to anyone. Interest rate was left at the level of 2.5% per annum, since its level has already been revised last month. In addition, the data released on Thursday showed that activity in the manufacturing industry fell by 1.4% q/q and remained unchanged on annual basis in Q3, against the fall of 0.7% in Q2, which is the consequence of slump in the world economy.

Tags: