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At the Forex currency market the New Zealand Dollar rate remains in the range of 0.8160-0.8370 on Friday morning.

Forex forecast: MACD indicator is in the negative area for the pair NZD/USD and is giving a sell signal, continuing to go down. Stochastic Oscillator is moving along the signal line in the neutral zone, and is not giving a clear signal.

Forex recommendations: off the market.

Feasible event scenario at Forex: in case of breakdown at the level of 0.8300, the pair will go to 0.8350 and 0.8370. If upward breakdown does not take place, the pair will consolidate close to the current levels.

The situation in the economy of New Zealand remains almost unchanged this morning; expectations of the annual conference of the U.S. Federal Reserve in Jackson Hole tonight will be the main activator for the NZD/USD.

Last meeting of the Reserve Bank of New Zealand did not bring any surprises: it was decided to leave interest rate at the previous level of 2.5% per annum. In the follow-up comments the RBNZ said that monetary policy tightening which has been planned for the nearest future is aimed to duly curb the rise in prices in the country. As the head of the Bank, Mr. Bollard noted:”World financial risks have begun to fade out and economic growth continues to accelerate pace; therefore, there is no point to maintain the rate at the current low level any further.”

According to the released data, consumer confidence ANZ in New Zealand increased to 114.4 points in August against preliminary level of 109.4 points. CPI in New Zealand rose by 1.0% q/q (+5.3% y/y) in Q2 against the forecast of growth by 0.8% on quarterly basis. It is one more positive characteristic of the economic status in New Zealand. It is worth noting that permits for construction in New Zealand fell by 1.4% m/m in June against the forecast of +3.0%.

As it was made public earlier unemployment rate in New Zealand amounted to 6.5% in Q2 against revised similar value in Q1. Employment rate in New Zealand has not changed on quarterly basis in Q2, showing growth by 2.0% y/y, to 2.214 million. In general the data agreed with the economists’ forecast, while unemployment rate had been even below the consensus forecast of 6.6%.

It became known yesterday that retail sales in New Zealand increased by 0.9% q/q in Q2 against the forecast of growth by 0.7% on quarterly basis. According to the details given in the report the growth is attributed to the sale of motor spare parts, electrical goods and medicals.

The data released in the middle of the week demonstrated that export in New Zealand was at the level of NZ$3.7 billion in July. Surplus of trade balance fell in July and amounted to +NZ$129 million versus the level of +NZ$197 million in June. Note that exports increased by 4.5% in Q2, to NZ$12.2 billion; imports fell by 1%, to the level of NZ$11.8 billion. Exports to China and Australia have been reducing gradually, up to +1.3% y/y (+24.2% y/y earlier) and 1.2% y/y (previously: +4.7% y/y) respectively.

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