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The New Zealand Dollar is traded downward at the Forex currency market on Monday after the leap to new local highs.

Forex forecast: MACD indicator is in the positive area for the pair NZD/USD and is growing, which, taking into account high volumes, maintains a pair buy signal. Stochastic Oscillator remains in the overbought zone today, tending to move to the neutral zone.

Forex recommendations: in case of breakdown at the level of 0.7920 the pair will go to 0.7900 and 0.7880. If the downward breakdown does not take place the NZD/USD will consolidate close to the current levels.

The following data on New Zealand was published today:
– CPI in New Zealand rose by 0.8% on Quarterly basis (+4.5% y/y) in Quarter I against the forecast of growth by 1.0% on quarterly basis;
– Activity index in the service sector of New Zealand remained at the February level of 50.8 points in March.

Therefore, inflation in the county was below the forecast which demonstrated slow pace of the national economic recovery. Indices in March has not been impressive either: : business confidence index NBNZ fell to -8.7 in New Zealand against 34.5 in the previous period. It is difficult to judge which factor has caused such rollback and it is worth waiting for the new data to be able to speak about one or another trend.

Statistics released earlier was mixed: index of houses prices REINZ increased by 0.5% in March against preliminary forecast of growth by 2.3%; while sale of houses reduced by 5.1% last month against preliminary level of -10.5%. In addition prices for food rose by 0.3% in March against preliminary target of -10.5%. In addition prices for food increased by 0.3% in March against the preliminary target of 0.1%. Earlier the country reported that trade surplus was positive for the first time in the last 8 months. High raw material prices which have been maintained in the world market became a catalyst for this, as well as the growth of export levels of timber and dry milk. Exports increased by 17% y/y in February; imports – by 23% y/y, to the level of 3.86 billion of NSD. Exports in New Zealand amounts to about 30% of the total GDP level and the increase in this article will have a positive impact on the national economy.

In addition it also became known that the level of business confidence in New Zealand declined by 27% in QI, as per NIESR estimates against the level of +8 points in QIV.

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