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At the Forex currency market the New Zealand Dollar rate is traded upward at the beginning of the week, smoothing over Friday's sales.

Forex forecast: MACD indicator for the pair NZD/USD is in the positive area, it is moving along the signal line and is not giving a clear signal. Stochastic Oscillator suspended its fall in the neutral zone and is growing again, giving a buy signal.

Forex recommendations: in case of breakdown at the level of 0.8360, the pair will go to 0.8370 and 0.8390.

Macro-economic situation has not changed fundamentally.

If the main driver in the market was profit taking on Friday, strategy on Monday is not clear yet; as soon as players make use of Greek news, informational vacuum will be created in the market.

It became known earlier that unemployment rate fell to 6.3% in Q4 2011 against the level of 6.6% a quarter earlier. This is positive information indicating that, employment sector, being one of the supportive factors for the economy, will be able to guarantee stability even incase of pessimistic external influence.

At the meeting in the end of January, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand decided to leave interest rate at the minimal level of 2.5% per annum. According to follow-up comments of the regulator, this decision is reasonable because world economic risks are still preserved, despite internal stability in New Zealand. RBNZ emphasized that inflationary pressure is being steadily contained; however NZD growth negatively affect searnings of exporters.

According to the report of the Reserve Bank of New Zealand, the regulator is ready to act if conditions, appropriate for his intervention will be created. In case if the slump of 2008 will be repeated, the RBNZ has a number of measures to avoid the slump of economy in the global scale. It is all about the level of liquidity in the banks. The document was submitted to authorities in December; however the contents of it have been made public only last week.

Activity index in the service sector of New Zealand fell to 50.6 points (-5.6 points) in December. Trade balance amounted to +NZ$338 billion in December against the level of -NZ$307 billion in November. However, positive factor of the index has already been incorporated into the price. GDP in New Zealand increased by 0.8% q/q in Q3 (+1.9% y/y) against the forecast of +0.6% on quarterly basis. Significant support to the economy of New Zealand was provided by Rugby Championship which attracted a lot of investment into the country. GDP rose by 0.1% q/q (+1.5% y/y) in Q2 against the level of +0.9% q/q (+1.6% y/y) in Q1. Thus, New Zealand economy is actually in the state of stagnation. GDP had almost stopped growing, but revived later. Most likely the index will be weaker in Q4.

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