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The New Zealand Dollar rate is on sale again at the Forex currency market after a short break: due to the high tension at the global financial markets, investors’ thirst for risk is minimal.

Forex forecast: MACD indicator for the pair NZD/USD is in the negative area and goes down, giving a sell signal.  Stochastic Oscillator is also going down in the neutral zone and is giving a sell signal.

Forex recommendations: in case of breakdown at the level of 0.8170, the pair will go to 0.8165 and 0.8150.

In general the economic situation in New Zealand remains unchanged, external background and expectations of the U.S. Federal reserve decision are the main drivers. As it became known on Friday, consumer confidence index ANZ in New Zealand fell to 112.6 points in September against the level of 113.3 points in August.

It is clear that macro-economy does not provide any support to the NZD. In addition, it became known that purchasing manager index PMI BNZ in New Zealand fell to 52.9 points in August against the previous level of 53.2 points. The index had been declining for the third consecutive month which demonstrates slowdown in the sector.

According to statistics released this morning, activity index on the service sector of New Zealand fell by 0.6 points in August, to the level of 53.9 points. At the same time, consumer confidence Westpac in New Zealand remained at the level of 112.0 points in Q3 versus similar level in Q2. It is the latest data that keeps the NZD afloat, showing that consumers believe in the best. According to the released data, consumer confidence ANZ in New Zealand increased to 114.4 points in August against preliminary level of 109.4 points.

CPI in New Zealand rose by 1.0% q/q (+5.3% y/y) in Q2 against the forecast of growth by 0.8% on quarterly basis. This was another positive feature in the outline of New Zealand economy. It is worth noting that number of permits to construct in New Zealand decreased by 1.4% m/m in July against the forecast of +3.0%. Activity in the construction sector of Australia was at the level of - 6.6 q/q in Q2, which agreed with the revised data in Q1. Outcome of the meeting of the Reserve Bank of New Zealand held earlier was predictable, however investors were disappointed.

Thus, interest rate was left at the previous level of 2.50% as expected. The RBNZ commented that a pause in revision of the rate has lasted that long, due to poor economic prospects of the countries- commercial partners of New Zealand. In particular, the Central Bank is concerned about the situation in the USA and in Europe as a whole. At the same time, previous high level of exchange rate of the AUD has exerted pressure on the national economy.

According to RBNZ, it seems reasonable at the moment to leave the rate unchanged at the previous level so as to take into account risks of the global economy.

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