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At the Forex currency market the New Zealand rate continues to weaken on Thursday because investors try to escaep all possible risks.

Forex forecast: MACD indicator for the pair NZD/USD is going up in the negative area and is giving a buy signal; volumes are minimal. Stochastic Oscillator fell into oversold zone and is giving a sell signal.

Forex recommendations: in case of breakdown at the level of 0.7470 the pair will go to 0.7450 and 0.7430.

Macro-economic background in New Zealand is neutral. The main impact on the NZD is caused by investors’ aversion to risk, as they do not believe in stability in Eurozone or in prevention of slowdown in the world economy.  Strong oversold is not important for the NZD now.

GDP rose by 0.1% q/q (+1.5% y/y) in Q2 against the level of +0.9% q/q (+1.6% y/y) in Q1. Thus New Zealand economy is actually in the state of stagnation. GDP almost stopped growing in the last quarter, which only proves that the decision of the RBNZ not to change the levels of the interest rate was logical. The report disappointed market and currently it is quite possible that regulator will keep interest rates at this level for a long time, at least until the end of spring 2012. Permits to construct in New Zealand increased sharply by 10,0% in October against the fall of 1.3% y/y in September.

Decision of the Reserve Bank of New Zealand last week was of no surprise to anyone. Interest rate was left at the level of 2.5% per annum, since its level has already been revised last month. In addition, the data released on Thursday showed that activity in the manufacturing industry fell by 1.4% q/q and remained unchanged on annual basis in Q3, against the fall of 0.7% in Q2, which is the consequence of slowdown in the world economy.

It became known earlier that trade balance in New Zealand was at the level of –NZ$282 million in October against the level of NZ$784 million in September. The index remained in deficit last month although higher than the forecasts of economists. Volumes of export increased by 5.3% (NZ$3.9 billion) on annual basis in October and imports rose by 8.9% y/y due to demand for industrial production. Consumer confidence index ANZ in New Zealand declined to 108.4 points in December against 109.0 points earlier. The NZD regained from this information due to pressure from sellers.

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