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The New Zealand Dollar rate steps off slightly from local lows at the Forex currency market on Tuesday, at which the NZD found itself the day before.

Forex forecast: MACD indicator for the pair NZD/USD is in the negative area and goes down, giving a sell signal; volumes are increasing. Stochastic Oscillator moved to the oversold zone, still preserving a sell signal.

Forex recommendations: in case of breakdown at the level of 0.7520, the pair will go to 0.7500 and 0.7595. As a technical correction movement the pair may go to 0.7650.

The NZD remains under the pressure caused by risk aversion in spite of oversold seen in defensive currencies and attractive levels.

According to Fitch economists, current account deficit in 2012 in New Zealand will only widen to 4,9%, in 2013 – to 5,5%. At the same time external debt level exceeds the upper limit for the country’s current rating. These points played the main role in rating downgrade.

As noted by the Finance Ministry of the country, rating agencies pay too much attention to the debt problems, and the uncertainty about the same actions to be taken by other rating agencies preserves. The RBNZ head said that the financing of the country’s banking sector might become a problem in 2012. According to Mr. Bollard, the New Zealand banking system now feels a great deal better than in 2008, but risks from Europe and USA are increasing. Still the NZD is too expensive, in his opinion.

It became known last week that GDP in New Zealand increased by 0.1% q/q (+1.5% y/y) in Q2 against the level of +0.9% q/q (+1.6% y/y) in Q1. ANZ Commodities prices in New Zealand totaled -1,3% m/m in September against -1,2% m/m. It is obvious that export-oriented economy is seriously affected by the external background showing a global slump in demand. This can be proved by observers’ reaction: according to the information released last week, Fitch Ratings downgraded New Zealand to ?? from ??+, outlook “stable”. Market’s reaction to the news was immediate: the NZD found itself in a selloff slumping in a downward channel.

Therefore, there is actually stagnation in the economy of New Zealand: GDP has almost stopped rising last quarter, which proves that decision of the RBNZ do not change interest rate was logical. The report has disappointed market and currently it is quite possible that regulator will keep interest rates at this level for a long time, at least until the end of spring 2012. 

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