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The New Zealand Dollar rate continues growing slightly from local lows reached on Tuesday at the Forex currency market at the end of the week.

Forex forecast: MACD indicator for the pair NZD/USD is in the negative area and goes down, giving a sell signal; volumes are still noticeable. Stochastic Oscillator rises in the neutral zone, forming a buy signal.

Forex recommendations: in case of breakup at the level of 0.7750, the pair will go to 0.7765 and 0.7780.

Macroeconomic situation in New Zealand remains practically unchanged. Rather stable external background allows the NZD to recoup its former losses.

As noted by the Finance Ministry of the country, rating agencies pay too much attention to the debt problems, and the uncertainty about the same actions to be taken by other rating agencies preserves. The RBNZ head said that the financing of the country’s banking sector might become a problem in 2012. According to Mr. Bollard, the New Zealand banking system now feels a great deal better than in 2008, but risks from Europe and USA are increasing. Still the NZD is too expensive, in his opinion.

It became known before that GDP in New Zealand increased by 0.1% q/q (+1.5% y/y) in Q2 against the level of +0.9% q/q (+1.6% y/y) in Q1. ANZ Commodities prices in New Zealand totaled -1,3% m/m in September against -1,2% m/m. It is obvious that export-oriented economy is seriously affected by the external background showing a global slump in demand. This can be proved by observers’ reaction: according to the information released last week, Fitch Ratings downgraded New Zealand to ?? from ??+, outlook “stable”.

Therefore, there is actually stagnation in the economy of New Zealand: GDP has almost stopped rising last quarter, which proves that decision of the RBNZ do not change interest rate was logical. The report has disappointed market and currently it is quite possible that regulator will keep interest rates at this level for a long time, at least until the end of spring 2012.

According to Fitch economists, current account deficit in 2012 in New Zealand will only widen to 4,9%, in 2013 – to 5,5%. At the same time external debt level exceeds the upper limit for the country’s current rating. These points played the main role in rating downgrade. 

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